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CFL Week 13 Market Review: How Right Were the Books?
A spread-and-total post-mortem of CFL Week 13 through Saturday. The market was sharp on sides, but totals were set too high almost everywhere.
CFL Week 13 Market Review: How Right Were the Books?
Week 13 is three-quarters done, and the first thing that jumps out of the box scores is how little the box scores tell you.
The market opened the week with four double-digit totals and a few lines that looked too small to be real. After Friday and Saturday, the story is cleaner: the books knew who should win, but they overestimated how many points would be scored.
Below is a spread-and-total scorecard using the closing lines from the Aug. 30 CFL Scorecast (SportSelect) against the actual results.
The Scorecard
| Game | Market Spread | Market Total | Final Score | Spread Result | Total Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montreal @ Winnipeg | Montreal -6.5 | 60.5 | Winnipeg 44, Montreal 28 | Winnipeg +6.5 covers | Over by 11.5 |
| Hamilton @ Calgary | Calgary -2.0 | 55.5 | Calgary 28, Hamilton 23 | Calgary -2.0 covers | Under by 4.5 |
| Toronto @ Saskatchewan | Saskatchewan -4.5 | 62.5 | Saskatchewan 28, Toronto 24 | Toronto +4.5 covers | Under by 10.5 |
| BC @ Ottawa | BC -7.0 | 60.5 | Sunday, 7 p.m. ET | — | — |
Montreal @ Winnipeg: The One the Market Missed
The Alouettes came in on a seven-game win streak and the market priced them as a touchdown favourite on the road. The Bombers won 44-28, covering the spread by roughly 16 points and blowing the total out by 11.5.
This was not a one-score game that flipped on a bad bounce. Winnipeg controlled possession, ran for 158 yards, and kept Davis Alexander off the field. The model had Winnipeg as a small favourite and the market had Montreal -6.5; the model was right, the market was wrong, and the total was wrong in the same direction.
If you bet the under, the fourth-quarter garbage-time touchdowns hurt. If you bet Montreal, nothing helped.
Hamilton @ Calgary: A Market Bullseye
The Stampeders won 28-23 on a late Dedrick Mills touchdown. The market closed Calgary -2.0; they won by 5. The total closed 55.5; the teams combined for 51.
This is what "sharp" looks like. The side landed within a field goal of the number and the total landed within a touchdown. Josh Love made his first CFL start and the Stamps still found a way to close exactly where the book thought they should.
Toronto @ Saskatchewan: Spread on the Nose, Total Too High
The Roughriders won 28-24, which means Saskatchewan -4.5 was a loser by half a point and Toronto +4.5 cashed. The total closed 62.5 and the teams scored 52 — an 10.5-point miss to the under.
The spread was basically perfect. The total was not. The Argos moved the ball for most of the night but stalled in the red zone; Saskatchewan's comeback kept the game close without turning it into a shootout.
The Pattern So Far
Through three games:
- Spreads: two of three landed within a field goal of the closing number. The Montreal-Winnipeg game was the only real miss.
- Totals: all three went under. The market set totals between 55.5 and 62.5 and the games finished 51, 52, and 72. The average closing total was 59.5; the average final score was 55.7.
- Favourites: two of three favourites won outright, but only Calgary covered. Montreal was the chalk that got burned.
So were the books bang on? On sides, mostly. On totals, no — they were too high across the Saturday slate.
What the Model Saw
Our Aug. 30 Scorecast had:
- Winnipeg catching Montreal (model +5.5 vs market +6.5) — correct side.
- Calgary over Hamilton (model +5.8 vs market -2.0) — correct side and near-perfect score.
- Toronto catching Saskatchewan (model -1.1 vs market -4.5) — correct side.
The model also leaned under on all three Saturday games. That was right on Calgary-Hamilton and Toronto-Saskatchewan, but the Montreal-Winnipeg shootout — fuelled by short fields and defensive stops turning into scores — broke the under.
The edge this week was on the side, not the total.
Sunday's Test
BC closes the week as a -7.0 road favourite in Ottawa with a 60.5 total. The model has BC by about a touchdown and the total closer to 47. If the Saturday pattern holds, the spread should be close and the total could come in under.
Check back Monday for the full Week 13 betting recap.
Lines are sourced from SportSelect and reflect the Aug. 30 CFL Scorecast. Verify scores and numbers before wagering.