Articles
Essays and field notes from the lab — separate from the paid reports and books in the marketplace.
We Joined a Public Survivor Pool: Classic III, $20 a Seat, 360 Entries, $6,000 Winner-Take-All
2026-09-11
The desk's survivor picks stop being paper this week: we're entries in Classic III, a public pay-to-play NFL survivor pool — $20 CAD per entry, single knockout, 360 seats, $6,000 top prize, floating start week. No sponsorship, no affiliation: paid entries, real stakes, and how the Week 1 board maps onto them.
Kickoff Recap: Seahawks 13, Patriots 10 — Seattle Wins Ugly, Loses Darnold, and the Under Cashes
2026-09-10
NFL kickoff recap: Seattle beats New England 13-10 despite losing Sam Darnold to a hip injury on the opening drive. The Seahawks didn't cover, the total went under, and the only three interceptions belonged to Drake Maye — what it means for survivor pools and the Week 2 board.
NFL Survivor Rollout: Week 1 Is Live — the Engine Is Running, the Pick Is Jacksonville, and Grading Lands Monday
2026-09-10
The SaskPoly NFL survivor vertical is live for the 2026 season: what ships each week, where the Week 1 pick landed (Jacksonville, 76.6%, inside the 10.1-point fade budget), what's on the slate tonight through Monday, and how we'll grade it.
Thursday Recap: 49ers 27, Rams 7 — the 63.7% Favorite Dies in Melbourne, and Every Pool Just Got Smaller
2026-09-10
NFL Melbourne game recap: San Francisco beats the Rams 27-7 as a +164 underdog in the first-ever NFL game in Australia. The Rams closed -3.5 at 63.7% no-vig and got boat-raced — what it means for the Week 1 survivor board and the Week 2 market.
The Cleanest Bet in Football Starts Wednesday: We're Covering NFL Survivor All Season
2026-09-08
SaskPoly is covering NFL survivor pools all season: a weekly Wednesday brief with the slate, the chalk, the fade budget, and the pick, plus an honest Monday grading post.
Survivor Week 1 Brief: The Chalk Is Soft, the Budget Is 10.1 Points, and We're on Jacksonville
2026-09-08
Week 1 survivor brief: the Chargers are the chalk at 81.2% no-vig and 32% owned, the fade budget is 10.1 points, and the pick is Jacksonville (76.6%) over Cleveland.
Kickoff Preview: Patriots at Seahawks — Super Bowl LX, Again, and the Market Says 62%
2026-09-08
NFL kickoff preview: Patriots at Seahawks, Wednesday 8:20 PM ET at Lumen Field — the Super Bowl LX rematch. Seattle lays 3.5, the total is 44.5, the de-vigged price is ~62% — and why that makes this a game survivor players watch, not bet.
It's Here: Smart Bet Field Guide — NFL Survivor Pools Is Out on Amazon
2026-09-08
Smart Bet Field Guide: NFL Survivor Pools is out now on Amazon — the whole survivor framework from this season's coverage, in one place you can hold.
The Home Run Tracker v2 Now Grades Itself
2026-09-05
The v2 report has always shown green, yellow, and red picks. Now the backtest tells you whether those colors actually mean anything. Spoiler: they do.
Why We're Building an NFL Survivor Pool Engine
2026-08-31
The CFL Scorecast worked because it treated games as a market problem, not a fan problem. Here's why we're bringing that same engine to NFL survivor pools.
CFL Week 13 Market Review: How Right Were the Books?
2026-08-30
A spread-and-total post-mortem of CFL Week 13 through Saturday. The market was sharp on sides, but totals were set too high almost everywhere.
NFL Survivor Pools: What They Are, How to Play, and Where the Edge Lives
2026-08-30
A plain-English guide to NFL survivor pools — the rules, the biggest contests on the planet, and why a model-driven approach beats picking the biggest favourite every week.
Why I Burned the Home Run Tracker and Rebuilt It
2026-08-28
The old additive scoring model was dragging us underwater at 28%. Here's how v2 replaces astrology with interaction, spray-personalized parks, and a hard team HR gate.