NFL Week 6 Sunday Grading: The Card Goes 1-2 and −1.65u, Philadelphia Dies the Way the Disclosure Said It Might, Green Bay Pays 2.10u, the Survivor Bullet Dies With the Colts, and Kansas City Carries Two Tickets Forward

Say it in the first paragraph, with the numbers, on the same terms the picks were made. The Sunday card went 1-2 for −1.65u: Green Bay paid, Philadelphia and the Giants did not. The teaser's Kansas City leg covered by ten points; its San Francisco leg grades Monday night. In the survivor pools, the Bullet died on Indianapolis at 74.8% — the exact branch this desk printed in advance — and the doubled Kansas City ticket survived. The engine line through Sunday night: 49-56 on positive-edge bets, +17.96u, mean Brier 0.2398 across 228 graded predictions.

The card, graded

Net −1.65u. No varnish on the Eagles: the twenty-five-point disagreement this house published Saturday resolved for the market, and it wasn't close. Carolina won 25-14 in the stadium where the model said Philadelphia would win twice in three tries. The caveat ran in this space before kickoff — the market prices this backup, today; the model prices the average — and the ticket was the desk's to decline with the deviation clause open until 1:00 PM. It rode, and it lost, and the grade says so in the same paragraph as the win. The Giants leg was the quieter wrong: New Orleans 34-27, and the Saints' listed questions (Kamara, Olave) played well enough. Green Bay was the discipline paying for the indiscipline — 23-13, never close, +2.10u at the 2.20 the card printed.

The board, said honestly

The leans around the card went mixed in the way that stings. Atlanta — fourth off the cut, the next man up if the desk had declined an Eagles leg — lost by eight, Chicago 31-23. The forecast-only Rams row, a 65% number no line could back, missed worst of all: 16-18 to an Arizona team that traded its best receiver last week. The passes graded right more often than not — Cleveland in the backup bowl (13-10), Pittsburgh's lean with Mayfield out (26-19), Kansas City and Buffalo both winning as the market said, and the board's one printed non-card lean (Buffalo, +1.7%) came in. The mean of it: a 4-8 day at flat stakes on the full board, and a Brier that drifted from 0.2373 to 0.2398 on the weight of all those 65s that weren't. The model prints its number; the scoreboard prints the receipt; the ledger keeps both.

The teaser

Kansas City −1.5 covered with the card's easiest margin of the season: 22-6, sixteen points. Graded at the assumed 1.91 as published, the leg is +0.91u on a placed one-unit card — and the slip's real fill is still owed to the log when it surfaces, per the standing convention. The San Francisco −1.5 leg rides Monday night against Washington, with Nick Bosa's name still on the injury report and the engine's flag printed Saturday.

The survivor tickets

(The Week 6 brief) priced both branches before a ball was kicked, and Sunday ran the worst one. Indianapolis lost at home to a winless Tennessee team, 26-20, and the Bullet dies at 74.8% — a breakeven fade the desk printed against its own published call, on the owner's seat, and the grade opens here the way the pre-commit wrote it. What nobody priced: the Rams lost too, 16-18 to Arizona, taking the desk's own call and a huge slice of America down the same drain. The fade was right about the bus and wrong about the replacement seat; that sentence is the whole autopsy. The ESPN and Second Chance tickets both took Kansas City at a 1.07x equity multiple and both advance — the double this desk disclosed and accepted the concentration risk for. The portfolio's all-three number dies at 47.4% unrealized; the two survivors carry forward at 6-0 and 2-0. The survivor grading carries the pool details.

The pick'em pool card

The fourteen legs grade against the form spreads on the published card, the Monday-nighter still pending:

Won (4): Denver +2.5 (17-14) · Pittsburgh −2.5 (26-19) · Kansas City −8.5 (22-6) · Green Bay −1.5 (23-13) Lost (9): Houston +2.5 (31-34, London) · Atlanta +2.5 (23-31) · Baltimore −5.5 (10-13) · Indianapolis −6.5 (20-26) · New England −7.5 (26-19, won by exactly seven) · NY Giants +1.5 (27-34) · Philadelphia +1.5 (14-25) · the Rams −12.5 (16-18) · Buffalo −5.5 (30-33) Pending (1): San Francisco −7.5 Monday night; the MNF-total tiebreak of 50 grades with it.

4-9 through Sunday, with the house's own method-tilt confession from the card article doing most of the damage on the heavy favorites. The tiebreak center-hold strategy still lives if the Monday total lands near the number — don't get cute was the instruction, and the instruction stands.

What we owe

San Francisco's teaser leg and the pick'em's fourteenth leg grade Monday night; ALCS Game 5 grades when Cleveland and Tampa Bay finish. Tonight's recap lands on the loop, and the full survivor pool math — who else died nationally, what the Classic III field looks like this morning — publishes in the survivor grading. The season line, current through Sunday: 49-56, +17.96u, Brier 0.2398, 228 graded, every one of them written down before kickoff (the ledger).

One bad Sunday doesn't change the process. It grades it.

Bring your own pencil.