Saturday Board Note: Friday's 36% Dog Lands at 5.30 and the Floor Rule Refuses to Apologize — Four Quarterbacks Out Before Sunday, the Teaser Card Re-Rolls Without Tampa Bay, and the Tickets Already Printed Take the News in the Open

Friday night settled two rows and Saturday morning delivered the injury report that rearranges Sunday. Both belong on the record before anything kicks off, because this house grades the leans it refused to card with the same ink as the ones it did.

Friday, settled

Ottawa was the only positive edge on Friday's board: the model made the Redblacks a 36.0% winner against a market price of 19.2%. The house floor — no forward pick below a 40% model number — kept it off the card, same as the manufactured edges it named and passed in Week 5. The lean graded right. The floor does not apologize, and it does not get rewritten on one coin: a 36% row winning once is a result, not a rebuttal. The rule exists because clamp-adjacent edges are the least trustworthy kind the model prints, and one Friday doesn't change what a season of backtesting said.

The Tampa Bay–Cleveland game never started — rained out, re-logged under a new identity, playing tonight with the same numbers attached (pass, both nights: model 44.0%, market 49.4%). Yesterday's orphaned row voids under the postponement convention once tonight's grades.

The totals, current through Friday: 48-52 on positive-edge bets, +21.61u, mean Brier 0.2366 across 211 graded predictions — every one written down before first pitch (the ledger).

Sunday's tickets, re-read through four quarterback outs

The nflverse Friday report, read this morning, puts four starting quarterbacks on the shelf. What each one does to a ticket this house already printed:

Philadelphia (−2.47 digest): Hurts out, Barkley out. The pick'em card locked Philadelphia +1.5 in the open on Thursday — "the market flipped this game; we take the home dog." The flip priced the suspicion. Friday's report confirms it, and the ticket is entered, so it grades Monday as entered, thinned. The card's own confession applies double now: that method finds seams between instruments; it cannot see an MRI.

Tampa Bay (−1.79): Mayfield out. Yesterday's teaser card carried the Buccaneers +8.5. The engine's rule flags any leg with quarterback-scale damage and leaves it off the card — today's re-roll prices Kansas City −1.5 and San Francisco −1.5 instead (the teaser engine, Part 4). Flagged means flagged, not forbidden: if the Thursday card was already placed at the window, it stands as placed and grades at the assumed 1.91, slip price logged when it surfaces.

Baltimore (−1.85): Jackson out; Cleveland (−2.37): Gabriel out. No desk ticket touches that game, which is now the backup bowl. It matters anyway: the desk's Week 12 save is Baltimore at Houston per the published scope, and a save is only as good as its quarterback's ankle — this is the second consecutive week the ankle has failed. The save gets re-priced weekly until it is spent or dead. It is not dead. It is limping.

What survives: the survivor card — Indianapolis and the doubled Kansas City — is clean on today's report. The pre-committed wires fire at 6:00 PM MT tonight: Kansas City through −6.5, Indianapolis through −5.5. Nothing to do until then (the brief).

Tonight

Tampa Bay at Cleveland, Game 4 of the ALCS, is the pass it was yesterday. The CFL doubleheader carries the only disagreement on the board worth naming: Montreal at Saskatchewan, where the market makes the 13-3 Alouettes a 70.9% favorite and the model makes them 55.2% — because Montreal's Friday digest runs ten deep (−2.7, worst injury number on the day) and Saskatchewan's runs two. The model is cooler on the banged-up favorite and stays on the pass side of the floor. British Columbia at Calgary passes the other way: two of the three worst digests in the league sharing a field, and the market already knows.

What we owe

Tonight's ALCS row grades when it goes final, the orphaned postponement row voids the same pass, and tomorrow morning's tick prices all four quarterback outs through the digest before the Sunday machine card prints. The wires get their check at 6:00 PM, the pick'em card grades Monday against the numbers on its page, and the teaser card grades at whatever the slip says. The leans are printed, the totals are current, and the news is on the record before kickoff — which is the whole job.

Bring your own pencil.