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Week 5 Injury Rundown: The Board, the Tax on Each, and the One Price That Looks Wrong
Every injury that matters for the week-5 Sunday and Monday slate, priced: what the report costs each team in win probability, what the market did about it, and where the two disagree. Lamar Jackson's ankle is the headline mismatch — the table says a quarterback in his condition is worth 5.8 points, the market moved half a point. Cleveland–New York is the priced-correctly contrast. Chicago's backup quarterback, Cincinnati's missing receivers, and the CFL doubleheader tonight inside. Wednesday reports, Friday designations, and the fine print on reading both.
Friday means the week-5 board is set. Below: every injury that matters for the Sunday and Monday slate, what it costs the team in win probability, what the market already did about it, and the one place those two numbers disagree by enough to bet. The ruler first, the board second, the argument third.
The ruler
Measured against every NFL game since 2009 — 8,862 team-games with a quarterback's status on record (nflverse):
| Designation | Team-games | Market adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| QB out | 553 | −5.3 points |
| QB questionable | 473 | −2.0 points |
| QB doubtful | 97 | −1.8 points |
| Clean baseline | 7,739 | +0.5 points |
A clean quarterback against a ruled-out one is a 5.8-point swing, and one point of NFL spread is worth roughly 2.4 points of win probability. The positional weights, briefly: running back 0.30, linebacker 0.28, line 0.22, receiver 0.21, defensive line 0.21, tight end 0.14, defensive back 0.11, kicker zero. The names in the headlines price below the trenches. Anyone selling you a bigger adjustment is selling a story.
The board
Consensus lines (nflverse); injuries from the official week-5 report and practice logs (Sharp Football) (NFL.com). Wednesday DNP means did-not-practice, not ruled out — Friday and Saturday designations are where these numbers firm up.
| Game | The report | The tax | The market | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ ATL | Lamar: "outside chance," Huntley next up; Humphrey, Stanley, Hendrickson DNP | ≈ −5.8 if he sits | ATL −3.5 → −3 | Mismatch |
| CLE @ NYJ | Graham out weeks; Hall, Wallace, Jenkins DNP — vs Breece Hall week-to-week, 4 DNPs | both ≈ −3 | moved a full point on CLE news | Priced |
| CHI @ GB | Williams out, Bagent starts; Wright, Thuney, Jackson DNP | ≈ −5.8 + line | CHI −1.5 at Lambeau | Priced? |
| CIN @ MIA | Chase (protocol), Higgins (day-to-day) DNP | up to −4 if both sit | CIN −6.5 | Watch Sat |
| PHI @ JAX | Barkley week-to-week; Brown, Greenard, Campbell DNP | −2 to −4 | JAX −7.5 | Priced |
| MIN @ NO | Kamara, Olave DNP — vs Addison DNP | NO heavier | MIN −2.5 | Watch Fri |
Ravens at Falcons: the −5.8 vs −0.5 game
This is the error the rundown exists to find. Lamar Jackson did not practice Wednesday. Ian Rapoport puts his Sunday chance at "outside," with Tyler Huntley next up and multiple missed games possible (Sharp Football). Read that as a quarterback who is out in every way except the tag. The ruler says that is worth 5.8 points of win probability to Baltimore. The market moved half a point — Atlanta eased from −3.5 to −3 on the whisper that Jackson might play (ESPN).
Even being generous — say one chance in four he plays, which the reporting does not support — the expected tax is a touch over 4.5 points. The price carries about 1.2. That gap is the bet: Atlanta −3 is cheap for the version of this game that actually kicks off, and every practice Jackson misses this week makes it cheaper. If he practices Friday, tear the ticket up and say so in public. That is the deal with a priced rundown: the number has a date on it.
Browns at Jets: the market did the math
The contrast entry, because a rundown that only finds mistakes finds them everywhere. Cleveland's report: tackle Mason Graham out multiple weeks, tackle Mike Hall down, guard Teven Jenkins down, receiver Tylan Wallace down — Deshaun Watson full all week (Dawgs By Nature). Three of the four live in the trenches, where the weights say the money is. The market read the same report and moved Jets–Browns a full point, −1.5 to −2.5 (ESPN). A point of spread is 2.4 points of win probability; the trench tax on Cleveland's full list computes nearer two points than one. Close enough to call it priced. Too close to call it an error, in either direction.
The half the headline misses: the Jets' own report lists Breece Hall week-to-week on a quad, plus four more DNPs — and a feature back prices at 0.30, the fattest positional weight on the board. If Friday makes Hall's status real, the "priced" verdict flips on its unpriced side.
Quick hits
Bears at Packers. Tyson Bagent starts for Caleb Williams, and Chicago lists three starting linemen as Wednesday DNPs on top of it (Sharp Football). Yet the consensus has Chicago −1.5 at Lambeau (nflverse). Either the market priced Bagent long ago — the coaches have said "continues to recover" for days — or it is pricing a quarterback it has not seen start. Watch Friday's line, not Friday's quote.
Bengals at Dolphins. Ja'Marr Chase is in the concussion protocol and Tee Higgins is day-to-day, both down Wednesday. If both sit, the tax approaches four points against a 6.5-point road favorite. The number that matters lands Saturday.
Vikings at Saints. New Orleans lists Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave as DNPs; Minnesota answers with Jordan Addison. Kamara at 0.30 is a flagship tax. If neither Saint practices Friday, the table has done its job for the week.
Tonight, in the other football
Hamilton hosts Edmonton at 5:00 PM MT with the week-19 report already out: Bo Levi Mitchell on the six-game list, and five more one-game outs stacked on top — Wheatfall, Mang, Szeman, Fox, Peters. BC lists five outs across its line and defensive front against Ottawa. The desk's morning card liked the Tiger-Cats at 43.0% against a 29.1% market; the report says the price and the roster disagree, and the sheet carries both numbers (BGMSportsTrax). A backup quarterback and a quarter of the starting lineup is exactly the kind of news a 13-point edge has to survive, and exactly the kind a bettor should want priced before the ticket, not after.
The fine print
Wednesday DNP is a first page, not a verdict; Friday and Saturday designations are where the board firms up, and every verdict above is conditional on them. The league's report does not mark starters, so the −5.3 mixes backups into the bucket — the true starter-only figure is likely a touch higher. And a quarterback being popular is not a price; a quarterback being out is. The report says who's sitting. The tax says what it costs. Bet the difference.