Backtest
HR Prop Backtest — 2026-08-03
_Backtested the HR tracker model over the last 1 completed days (top 3 per team-game).
Summary
- Games analyzed: 15
- Top-3 hits: 25 / 90
- Top-3 accuracy: 27.8%
Weather Buckets
| Bucket | Games | Avg Actual HRs | Top Hit Rate | Avg Env |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (≥+3.0) | 18 | 1.11 | 27.8% | 7.63 |
| Medium (+1-3) | 12 | 0.83 | 27.8% | 2.5 |
| Low (<+1.0) | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Game Details
Philadelphia Phillies @ Baltimore Orioles — 2026-08-02
Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles — Actual HRs: 650559 (1), 547180 (1) | Env +8.3 | Actual SP: Kyle Bradish
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Harper | 20.0 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Bryan De La Cruz | 19.0 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 8.3 | 3.8 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Trea Turner | 18.0 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.3 | Actual SP: Zack Wheeler
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pete Alonso | 19.0 | 8.6 | 2.1 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Christian Encarnac | 13.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Leody Taveras | 13.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves — 2026-08-02
Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves — Actual HRs: None | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: JR Ritchie
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daylen Lile | 15.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Andrés Chaparro | 15.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Dylan Crews | 8.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals — Actual HRs: 621566 (1), 573262 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Cade Cavalli
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Olson | 30.9 | 17.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 7.2 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Mike Yastrzemski | 19.0 | 8.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 5.4 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 12.6 | 8.6 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays — 2026-08-02
St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays — Actual HRs: None | Env +7.1 | Actual SP: Max Scherzer
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Fermín | 17.7 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Lars Nootbaar | 9.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Jordan Walker | 9.8 | 0.0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Toronto Blue Jays vs St. Louis Cardinals — Actual HRs: None | Env +7.1 | Actual SP: Matthew Liberatore
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis Urías | 14.0 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Kazuma Okamoto | 14.0 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | George Springer | 14.0 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians — 2026-08-02
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.1 | Actual SP: Gavin Williams
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geraldo Perdomo | 21.5 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Corbin Carroll | 15.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Nolan Arenado | 15.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Actual HRs: 672275 (1) | Env +8.1 | Actual SP: Merrill Kelly
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Bailey | 37.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 11.7 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Kyle Manzardo | 23.6 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Chase DeLauter | 16.9 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds — 2026-08-02
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds — Actual HRs: None | Env +7.5 | Actual SP: Chase Burns
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Lowe | 24.4 | 8.6 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Jake Mangum | 12.5 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Bryan Reynolds | 12.5 | 4.3 | 0.7 | 7.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Actual HRs: 701398 (1), 663647 (1), 663886 (1) | Env +7.5 | Actual SP: Mitch Keller
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sal Stewart | 33.1 | 12.9 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 6.9 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | JJ Bleday | 29.8 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tyler Stephenson | 27.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 7.5 | 12.6 | ✓ HIT (1) |
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — 2026-08-02
Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — Actual HRs: 643217 (1), 677592 (1), 678246 (1) | Env +8.3 | Actual SP: Griffin Jax
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Benintendi | 44.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 21.8 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Miguel Vargas | 22.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Munetaka Murakami | 20.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox — Actual HRs: 810938 (1) | Env +8.3 | Actual SP: Anthony Kay
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cedric Mullins | 20.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Ryan Vilade | 19.3 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Ben Williamson | 15.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets — 2026-08-02
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets — Actual HRs: 691788 (1) | Env +8.0 | Actual SP: Robert Stock
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griffin Conine | 23.6 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Kyle Stowers | 22.6 | 12.9 | 1.7 | 8.0 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Owen Caissie | 17.7 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | ✗ |
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.0 | Actual SP: Sandy Alcantara
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Lindor | 42.9 | 12.9 | 1.9 | 8.0 | 20.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Marcus Semien | 23.7 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 10.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tyrone Taylor | 23.7 | 12.9 | 1.9 | 8.0 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros — 2026-08-02
Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros — Actual HRs: 607043 (1) | Env +7.2 | Actual SP: Peter Lambert
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joc Pederson | 42.1 | 12.9 | 1.1 | 7.2 | 20.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | Corey Seager | 18.6 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Ezequiel Duran | 18.4 | 4.3 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — Actual HRs: 665161 (1) | Env +7.2 | Actual SP: Kumar Rocker
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Peña | 39.6 | 17.1 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 8.2 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Yordan Alvarez | 27.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 7.2 | 14.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Christian Walker | 18.3 | 8.6 | 2.5 | 7.2 | 0.0 | ✗ |
New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs — 2026-08-02
New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs — Actual HRs: 676609 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Colin Rea
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Jones | 22.3 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | José Caballero | 17.5 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 6.7 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Amed Rosario | 8.8 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees — Actual HRs: None | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Gerrit Cole
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nico Hoerner | 15.8 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Dansby Swanson | 13.9 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 12.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Michael Conforto | 8.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 6.4 | ✗ |
Kansas City Royals @ Colorado Rockies — 2026-08-02
Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies — Actual HRs: None | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Kyle Freeland
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone | 18.5 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Luke Maile | 13.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Starling Marte | 11.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals — Actual HRs: 664983 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Seth Lugo
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Willi Castro | 18.9 | 12.9 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Jake McCarthy | 9.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Mickey Moniak | 7.6 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels — 2026-08-02
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels — Actual HRs: None | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Walbert Ureña
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Bauers | 12.1 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Brice Turang | 6.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Andrew Vaughn | 6.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers — Actual HRs: 685133 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Jacob Misiorowski
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wade Meckler | 8.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Vaughn Grissom | 6.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Jo Adell | 6.8 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Detroit Tigers @ Athletics — 2026-08-02
Detroit Tigers vs Athletics — Actual HRs: 681546 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Gage Jump
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Clark | 14.6 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | James Outman | 14.0 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Gleyber Torres | 13.0 | 8.6 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers — Actual HRs: None | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Keider Montero
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonah Heim | 11.4 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Henry Bolte | 8.0 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tyler Soderstrom | 7.0 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres — 2026-08-02
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — Actual HRs: 646240 (1), 678545 (1) | Env +7.1 | Actual SP: Kyle Hart
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Osleivis Basabe | 25.4 | 15.0 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Daniel Susac | 20.2 | 12.9 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Rafael Devers | 13.5 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants — Actual HRs: 701538 (1) | Env +7.1 | Actual SP: Landen Roupp
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Machado | 23.1 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Jackson Merrill | 17.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Jase Bowen | 11.4 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners — 2026-08-02
Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners — Actual HRs: 668904 (1), 663616 (1), 807712 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: George Kirby
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trevor Larnach | 25.5 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 9.6 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Luke Keaschall | 15.9 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Royce Lewis | 14.9 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins — Actual HRs: 663728 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Taj Bradley
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cal Raleigh | 29.4 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 13.5 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Julio Rodríguez | 18.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Randy Arozarena | 14.9 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 | ✗ |
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers — 2026-08-02
Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Actual HRs: 677800 (1), 680776 (1), 678882 (1), 807799 (1) | Env +7.1 | Actual SP: Emmet Sheehan
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceddanne Rafaela | 50.0 | 21.4 | 17.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 2 | Wilyer Abreu | 25.2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
| 3 | Masataka Yoshida | 17.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✓ HIT (1) |
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Boston Red Sox — Actual HRs: None | Env +7.1 | Actual SP: Jake Bennett
| Rank | Player | Score | Base | Pitch | Env | BvP | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Teoscar Hernández | 16.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Shohei Ohtani | 15.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | Enrique Hernández | 12.1 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | ✗ |