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The Prediction Desk
Rolling predictions across sports & markets — distilled from the Smart Bet Field Guide series.
Just released
Smart Bet Field Guide: NFL Survivor Pools — Out Now
The whole survivor framework from this season's coverage, in one place you can hold: vig-stripped probabilities, leverage against the field, and the fade budget. By Jason Spooner.
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The desk's running numbers
as of 2026-10-30 · since 2026-09-07
- Units
- +18.98u
- Positive-edge bets
- 150-140
- Graded predictions
- 299
- Mean Brier
- 0.2343
Every prediction logged before first pitch, graded against the price on the page — wins, losses, and the passes, all of them. How the ledger works.
The desk
NFL Week 8 Sunday Ticket, Graded: The Anchor Drowns and the Footnotes Cash — Jets -1.5 Loses Outright to the 82% Public, Tennessee +12.5 Covers by Five and a Half, Under 40.5 Lands in a 27-10 Game, and the Over-Divergence Under Read Runs to 6-for-6
NFL2026-11-02
Survivor Week 8 Grading: Jacksonville 42, Indianapolis 7 — Both Tickets Survive the Engine's 79.6% Call, the Second Chance Hits 4-0 and the Third Chance Opens 1-0, a Deviation Lives an Hour in the Log and Dies Before the Window, and the Pool Read Prints the Honest Verdict on the 1.20x
NFL SURVIVOR2026-11-02
NFL Week 8 Sunday Board: The Model's 30-Point War in Washington, the 82% Pool on the Raiders, and the Ticket Where the Books Sweep the Pools
NFL2026-10-30
NFL Survivor desk
Survivor index →The weekly survivor vertical: briefs on Wednesdays, grading on Mondays, and the board checks in between.
Survivor Week 8 Brief: One Ticket Left — the Engine Fades Cincinnati's 80.0% and 40.22% of the Verified Field for Jacksonville at 79.6% and 1.20x, and the Second Chance Rides the Jaguars
NFL SURVIVOR2026-10-29
Survivor Week 7 Grading: The 13.8% Branch — the Eliminator Dies at 80.4% on the Pre-Committed Paragraph, the Owner's Split Saves the Last Ticket at 16-10, Classic III Wakes Up Four Alive, and the Save's Target Just Lost to the Giants
NFL SURVIVOR2026-10-26
Survivor Week 7 Brief: Houston at 80.4% Carries 28.68% of a Shaken Field — the Bullet Is Dead at 5-1, the Portfolio Is Two Tickets, and the Owner Splits the Card: Texans on the Eliminator, Vikings on the Second Chance
NFL SURVIVOR2026-10-21
Survivor Week 6 Grading: The Bullet Dies at 74.8% Where the Brief Pre-Committed It — the Rams Lose Anyway, the Fade Was Right About the Bus and Wrong About the Seat, and Classic III Wakes Up 22 Alive
NFL SURVIVOR2026-10-19