sbfg calibration report

SBFG Calibration & Brier Score — 2026-08-03

2026-08-03

Resolved predictions: 335
Accuracy: 57.0%
Brier score: 0.2415 (lower is better; random = 0.25)

Calibration Bins

Bin	N	Avg Predicted	Actual Rate
50%-55%	42	52.2%	45.2%
55%-60%	48	58.1%	52.1%
60%-65%	47	62.8%	57.4%
65%-70%	50	67.4%	64.0%
70%-75%	25	71.5%	72.0%

ROI by Edge Threshold

Threshold	Bets	Wins	ROI
0.00	335	191	+6.4%
0.03	252	151	+13.4%
0.05	194	118	+17.4%
0.07	147	87	+15.0%