Kickoff Preview: Patriots at Seahawks — Super Bowl LX, Again, and the Market Says 62%
NFL kickoff preview: Patriots at Seahawks, Wednesday 8:20 PM ET at Lumen Field — the Super Bowl LX rematch. Seattle lays 3.5, the total is 44.5, the de-vigged price is ~62% — and why that makes this a game survivor players watch, not bet.
Tomorrow night the NFL season starts the way it ended: Patriots at Seahawks. Super Bowl LX was supposed to be a one-off — instead the league opened the 2026 schedule with the rematch, Wednesday, September 9, 8:20 PM ET at Lumen Field, on NBC and Peacock. The market has had months to price it. Here's where it landed, and what it means for your survivor pool.
The odds
The board, as of this morning:
| Market | Price | De-vigged win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SEA −3.5 (−102 to −118, book-dependent) | — |
| Moneyline | SEA −175 to −186 / NE +145 | SEA ~62%, NE ~38% |
| Total | 44.5 (Over −105 / Under −115) | — |
Sources: PFF has SEA −3.5 −110 and −186 on the moneyline; PickDawgz tracks +145/−175 and a 44.5 total; SportsLine confirms the 3.5-point line and 44.5 total; the ESPN odds page shows the under juiced at 44.5. Independent model consensus (BleacherBots) agrees with the market almost exactly: 62–63% Seattle.
Notice what's not on the board: anything close to a survivor favorite. Sixty-two percent is a real edge for a bookmaker's ledger and a thin reed for a pool entry.
The rematch
The last time these two met, Seattle won Super Bowl LX 29–13 at Levi's Stadium — a game that was a defensive slog for three quarters before the Seahawks pulled away. Seattle's defense recorded six sacks and forced three turnovers; Sam Darnold played a mistake-free game and Kenneth Walker III ran for 135 yards. It was Seattle's first title since Super Bowl XLVIII, and it avenged the Malcolm Butler game eleven years earlier.
Both teams bring back the same core identities from their 14–3 seasons. New England was a top-five offense a year ago — 379.4 yards per game, third-best in the league — behind Drake Maye. Seattle's defense held opponents to 285.9 yards per game (sixth), while the Seahawks' offense churned out 351.4 (seventh). The Patriots' defense (295.2 allowed, eighth) gets the harder assignment: quieting a Lumen Field crowd that watched this same matchup hoist a banner in February.
The survivor read
Here's the honest part. Seattle at ~62% is not a Week 1 survivor pick in any pool that locks after Wednesday. Compare the board from the Week 1 brief: the Chargers at 81.2%, Jacksonville at 76.6%, Detroit at 71.8%. Betting your season on a 62% favorite when a 19-point cheaper-in-probability, far-more-certain alternative exists isn't leverage — it's arson.
So what is this game to a survivor player? A data point. The kickoff game moves Week 2 markets. If Seattle wins comfortably as a 3.5-point favorite, NFC West prices next week re-rate around it. If New England walks into Lumen Field and wins outright, every ownership sheet in the country resets. Either way, watch it with your fade budget in mind — Week 1 is about finding the cheapest safe win, and the cheapest safe win is not in this game.
One exception: if your pool forces a pick before Wednesday's kickoff and counts the opener, Seattle at 62% is defensible as a low-owned differentiator — the public pick distributions we've seen have most entries saving Seattle for later. But that's a format quirk, not a recommendation.
The note
Everything above is a snapshot of the market as of Tuesday morning, and the market moves — the line has sat at 3.5 for days, but a Thursday injury report can move a Wednesday-night number's meaning fast. We don't promise Seattle covers, and we don't promise the total stays under. We promise the numbers are real, the sources are linked, and the survivor logic — don't spend a bullet on a 62% game — is the same arithmetic we'll grade ourselves against on Monday.
Process over outcome. Kickoff is tomorrow at 8:20 PM ET. Bring your own pencil.