HR Prop Backtest — 2026-09-20

_Backtested the HR tracker model over the last 1 completed days (top 3 per team-game).

Summary

Games analyzed: 15
Top-3 hits: 30 / 90
Top-3 accuracy: 33.3%

Weather Buckets

Bucket	Games	Avg Actual HRs	Top Hit Rate	Avg Env
High (≥+3.0)	24	1.08	31.9%	7.19
Medium (+1-3)	6	1.33	38.9%	2.5
Low (<+1.0)	0	0.0	0.0%	0.0

Game Details

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox — 2026-09-19

Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox — Actual HRs: None | Env +7.5 | Actual SP: Sean Burke

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Hao-Yu Lee	18.2	8.6	1.2	7.5	✗
2	Riley Greene	18.2	8.6	1.2	7.5	✗
3	Spencer Torkelson	17.2	8.6	1.2	7.5	✗

Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers — Actual HRs: 678246 (1) | Env +7.5 | Actual SP: Jackson Jobe

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Miguel Vargas	39.0	12.9	7.7	7.5	7.9	✓ HIT (1)
2	Munetaka Murakami	19.5	4.3	2.6	7.5	5.2	✗
3	Randal Grichuk	14.3	4.3	2.6	7.5	0.0	✗

Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles — 2026-09-19

Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore Orioles — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.0 | Actual SP: Trevor Rogers

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	William Contreras	23.3	12.9	2.4	8.0	✗
2	Garrett Mitchell	18.2	8.6	1.6	8.0	✗
3	Jackson Chourio	14.1	4.3	0.8	8.0	✗

Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.0 | Actual SP: Robert Gasser

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Pete Alonso	31.9	17.1	5.8	8.0	✗
2	Jeremiah Jackson	19.5	8.6	2.9	8.0	✗
3	Christian Encarnac	19.5	8.6	2.9	8.0	✗

Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — 2026-09-19

Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.0 | Actual SP: Freddy Peralta

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Trevor Story	22.0	4.3	1.6	8.0	8.0	✗
2	Roman Anthony	14.9	4.3	1.6	8.0	0.0	✗
3	Nick Sogard	13.9	4.3	1.6	8.0	0.0	✗

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox — Actual HRs: 666018 (1) | Env +8.0 | Actual SP: Brayan Bello

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Jonathan Aranda	37.1	12.9	1.6	8.0	12.6	✓ HIT (1)
2	Junior Caminero	12.9	4.3	0.5	8.0	0.0	✗
3	Victor Mesa Jr.	12.9	4.3	0.5	8.0	0.0	✗

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — 2026-09-19

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Actual HRs: None | Env +6.8 | Actual SP: Christian Scott

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Bryce Harper	18.4	4.3	0.6	6.8	6.7	✗
2	Edmundo Sosa	12.7	4.3	0.6	6.8	0.0	✗
3	Kyle Schwarber	11.7	4.3	0.6	6.8	0.0	✗

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies — Actual HRs: 682626 (1), 701807 (1) | Env +6.8 | Actual SP: Andrew Painter

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Carson Benge	22.6	8.6	5.3	6.8	✓ HIT (1)
2	Francisco Alvarez	15.7	4.3	2.6	6.8	✓ HIT (1)
3	Juan Soto	14.7	4.3	2.6	6.8	✗

Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians — 2026-09-19

Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians — Actual HRs: 622268 (1) | Env +7.9 | Actual SP: Tanner Bibee

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Lawrence Butler	27.3	12.9	6.5	7.9	0.0	✗
2	Zack Gelof	21.8	8.6	4.3	7.9	0.0	✗
3	Donovan Walton	21.0	4.3	2.2	7.9	4.6	✓ HIT (1)

Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics — Actual HRs: 800050 (1), 682657 (2) | Env +7.9 | Actual SP: Jacob Lopez

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Travis Bazzana	38.3	17.1	12.2	7.9	0.0	✗
2	Angel Martínez	33.9	12.9	9.2	7.9	0.0	✓ HIT (2)
3	Chase DeLauter	29.8	8.6	6.1	7.9	5.2	✓ HIT (1)

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — 2026-09-19

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds — Actual HRs: 683737 (1), 621020 (1) | Env +8.1 | Actual SP: Nick Lodolo

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Dansby Swanson	44.6	8.6	6.4	8.1	19.6	✓ HIT (1)
2	Michael Busch	33.3	8.6	6.4	8.1	8.2	✓ HIT (1)
3	Pete Crow-Armstron	30.6	12.9	9.7	8.1	0.0	✗

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs — Actual HRs: None | Env +8.1 | Actual SP: Matthew Boyd

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Eugenio Suárez	29.8	8.6	2.3	8.1	10.9	✗
2	Elly De La Cruz	18.9	8.6	2.3	8.1	0.0	✗
3	Dane Myers	13.5	4.3	1.1	8.1	0.0	✗

Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — 2026-09-19

Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Actual HRs: 695600 (1) | Env +7.2 | Actual SP: Bubba Chandler

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Carter Jensen	21.6	8.6	0.6	7.2	3.3	✓ HIT (1)
2	Vinnie Pasquantino	17.4	8.6	0.6	7.2	0.0	✗
3	Michael Massey	17.4	8.6	0.6	7.2	0.0	✗

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Kansas City Royals — Actual HRs: 682927 (1), 664040 (1), 663968 (1) | Env +7.2 | Actual SP: Noah Cameron

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Brandon Lowe	29.9	17.1	2.6	7.2	0.0	✓ HIT (1)
2	Ronny Simon	17.4	4.3	0.7	7.2	3.3	✓ HIT (1)
3	Henry Davis	17.0	8.6	1.3	7.2	0.0	✗

Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers — 2026-09-19

Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers — Actual HRs: 676914 (1) | Env +6.8 | Actual SP: Cal Quantrill

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Kazuma Okamoto	17.2	8.6	1.8	6.8	✗
2	Davis Schneider	14.0	4.3	0.9	6.8	✓ HIT (1)
3	Brett Bateman	12.0	4.3	0.9	6.8	✗

Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays — Actual HRs: 673962 (1) | Env +6.8 | Actual SP: José Soriano

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Josh Jung	26.4	8.6	0.5	6.8	8.5	✓ HIT (1)
2	Corey Seager	21.4	4.3	0.3	6.8	10.0	✗
3	Wyatt Langford	11.4	4.3	0.3	6.8	0.0	✗

Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — 2026-09-19

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros — Actual HRs: 660670 (1), 573262 (1) | Env +6.0 | Actual SP: Hayden Wesneski

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Env	Result
1	Ronald Acuña Jr.	26.2	17.1	6.0	✓ HIT (1)
2	Mike Yastrzemski	16.6	8.6	6.0	✓ HIT (1)
3	Matt Olson	15.6	8.6	6.0	✗

Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves — Actual HRs: 670623 (1) | Env +6.0 | Actual SP: Grant Holmes

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Isaac Paredes	30.3	12.9	4.9	6.0	4.5	✓ HIT (1)
2	Jeremy Peña	23.8	12.9	4.9	6.0	0.0	✗
3	Yordan Alvarez	17.9	8.6	3.3	6.0	0.0	✗

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — 2026-09-19

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals — Actual HRs: 695734 (1) | Env +6.1 | Actual SP: Michael McGreevy

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Daylen Lile	22.9	8.6	2.4	6.1	3.8	✓ HIT (1)
2	Dylan Crews	12.6	4.3	1.2	6.1	0.0	✗
3	Yohandy Morales	11.6	4.3	1.2	6.1	0.0	✗

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals — Actual HRs: None | Env +6.1 | Actual SP: Andrew Alvarez

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Env	Result
1	Leo Bernal	10.4	4.3	6.1	✗
2	Alec Burleson	10.4	4.3	6.1	✗
3	José Fermín	5.2	0.0	6.1	✗

Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies — 2026-09-19

Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies — Actual HRs: 668227 (1), 663728 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Jose Quintana

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Randy Arozarena	39.5	17.1	11.0	2.5	6.9	✓ HIT (1)
2	J.P. Crawford	24.6	12.9	8.2	2.5	0.0	✗
3	Cal Raleigh	23.4	8.6	5.5	2.5	4.9	✓ HIT (1)

Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners — Actual HRs: None | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Bryce Miller

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Cole Carrigg	23.6	12.9	8.2	2.5	✗
2	Hunter Goodman	9.5	4.3	2.7	2.5	✗
3	Kyle Karros	9.5	4.3	2.7	2.5	✗

New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks — 2026-09-19

New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Actual HRs: 671218 (1), 669224 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Brandon Pfaadt

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Cody Bellinger	25.5	8.6	1.2	2.5	13.2	✗
2	Austin Wells	19.2	12.9	1.9	2.5	0.0	✓ HIT (1)
3	Ben Rice	18.2	12.9	1.9	2.5	0.0	✗

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees — Actual HRs: 656976 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Cam Schlittler

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Env	Result
1	Gabriel Moreno	15.4	12.9	2.5	✗
2	Pavin Smith	13.1	8.6	2.5	✓ HIT (1)
3	Corbin Carroll	12.1	8.6	2.5	✗

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres — 2026-09-19

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres — Actual HRs: 665052 (1), 672640 (1) | Env +7.0 | Actual SP: Casey Mize

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	BvP	Result
1	Otto Lopez	21.6	4.3	0.9	7.0	7.4	✓ HIT (1)
2	Griffin Conine	19.4	8.6	1.8	7.0	0.0	✓ HIT (1)
3	Agustín Ramírez	18.4	8.6	1.8	7.0	0.0	✗

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins — Actual HRs: 669392 (1), 665487 (1) | Env +7.0 | Actual SP: Eury Pérez

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	26.1	12.9	4.2	7.0	✓ HIT (1)
2	Manny Machado	18.4	8.6	2.8	7.0	✗
3	Ethan Salas	18.4	8.6	2.8	7.0	✗

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers — 2026-09-19

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Actual HRs: 682674 (1) | Env +6.9 | Actual SP: Tarik Skubal

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Drew Gilbert	15.7	8.6	0.2	6.9	✗
2	Victor Bericoto	13.3	4.3	0.1	6.9	✓ HIT (1)
3	Jung Hoo Lee	12.3	4.3	0.1	6.9	✗

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants — Actual HRs: 669257 (1) | Env +6.9 | Actual SP: Yunior Marte

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Mookie Betts	25.8	12.9	4.0	6.9	✗
2	Kyle Tucker	24.8	12.9	4.0	6.9	✗
3	Will Smith	21.2	8.6	2.7	6.9	✓ HIT (1)

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — 2026-09-19

Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels — Actual HRs: 668952 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Reid Detmers

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Ryan Kreidler	14.2	8.6	1.1	2.5	✓ HIT (1)
2	Walker Jenkins	13.2	8.6	1.1	2.5	✗
3	Josh Bell	7.3	4.3	0.5	2.5	✗

Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins — Actual HRs: 642350 (1), 687093 (1) | Env +2.5 | Actual SP: Joe Ryan

Rank	Player	Score	Base	Pitch	Env	Result
1	Vaughn Grissom	10.7	4.3	1.9	2.5	✓ HIT (1)
2	Jose Siri	10.7	4.3	1.9	2.5	✓ HIT (1)
3	Zach Neto	8.7	4.3	1.9	2.5	✗