Morning Brent Crude Brief
Morning Brent Crude Brief — 2026-09-20
Current price, London session levels, Hyperliquid Brent/WTI perpetual context, full technical signal, backtest summary, Monte Carlo, charts, and a desk note.
Session Levels
| Level | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Current | $99.29 | Live BZ=F (USD/bbl) |
| London Open (08:00) | — | ICE Brent, London time |
| London Close (16:30) | — | Last look before US settlement |
| 24h Change | +0.00% | From prior settle |
Hyperliquid Oil Context
Hyperliquid lists direct oil perpetuals via its HIP-3 trade.xyz venue. BRENTOIL tracks ICE Brent Crude; CL tracks WTI.
| Proxy | Price | 24h Change | Funding / Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRENTOIL (ICE Brent Crude perp) | $100.86 | +1.35% | 0.0042% per 8h |
| CL (WTI Crude perp) | $97.37 | +1.38% | Sister crude confirmation |
| XLE (Energy Sector ETF) | $64.11 | -0.44% | US energy equity proxy |
| GOLD | $4,370.50 | -0.11% | Macro/commodity bid proxy |
| SILVER | $66.29 | -0.30% | Industrial commodity proxy |
Brent-BRENTOIL basis: -1.57 (Yahoo Brent minus Hyperliquid BRENTOIL)<br> WTI-Brent spread: $3.49 (Brent premium to WTI)
Long-Bias Signal
Technical Confluence Score
| Component | Score | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 5/25 | RSI(14) = 53.48 |
| ADX (14) | 15/25 | ADX = 27.60 |
| +DI / -DI | 20/20 | +DI = 24.97, -DI = 18.74 |
| Pivot Points | 15/15 | Price vs S1/R1 structure |
| Divergence | 0/15 | Bullish divergence: No |
| Total | 55/100 | Moderate Long |
Regime: Bullish Trend<br> Entry combo: None<br> Action: Standard position entry<br> Thesis status: On Track
Levels (based on close $99.29):
- Stop loss: $92.49
- Take profit 1 (2R): $112.90
- Take profit 2 (3.5R): $123.10
Backtest Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Trades | 78 |
| Win Rate | 53.8% |
| Profit Factor | 1.16 |
| Total Return | +4.50% |
| Avg Win | $79.77 |
| Avg Loss | $80.55 |
| Largest Win | $429.19 |
| Largest Loss | $-358.23 |
| Max Drawdown | 8.46% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.33 |
Monte Carlo Compounding
Starting capital $10, 10:1 leverage, 33% profit reinvestment, 7-trade scaling protocol.
| Percentile | Final Capital | Return |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | $0.00 | -100.0% |
| 25th | $5.06 | -49.4% |
| 50th (Median) | $11.09 | +10.9% |
| 75th | $17.12 | +71.2% |
| 90th | $22.81 | +128.1% |
| Mean | $11.56 | +15.6% |
100.0% target hit rate: 16.5%
Charts
Trading Notes
- Contract: BZ=F (ICE Brent Crude front month).
- Session: London open often sets the day's directional bias; US open (08:30 ET) is the next key inflection.
- Risk: Brent moves with macro headlines, USD direction, and inventory prints (Wednesdays 10:30 ET).
- Position: We are long Brent Crude since Saturday afternoon — track stop-loss and position size against today's London low.
Data sources: Yahoo Finance BZ=F; Hyperliquid API. Generated at 2026-09-20 12:30 UTC. Not investment advice.