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Home Run Tracker v2 Backtest

Home Run Tracker v2 Backtest — 2026-09-20

Backtested the v2 interaction-weighted, gated model over the last 7 completed days.

Aggregate Metrics

  • Games analyzed: 94
  • Team-games: 188
  • Gate kills: 0 (0.0%)
  • Total picks: 243
  • #1 hit rate: 26.6% (50 / 188)
  • #2 hit rate: 31.7%
  • #3 hit rate: 14.3%
  • Overall hit rate: 26.8%
  • SP-changed accuracy: 0.0% (0 cases)
  • High env (≥5.0) rate: 0.0% (0 cases)
  • Avg picks/day: 34.71

Hit Rate by Level

LevelPicksHitsHit Rate
Green21838.1%
Yellow401332.5%
Red1824424.2%

Section C: Daily Backtest Tracker

DateGamesTeam-GamesPicks Made#1 Hits#2 Hits#3 HitsG/Y/R Hits#1 RateOverall RateAvg Edge
2026-09-1315303512200/4/1040.0%40.0%0.00
2026-09-141020285211/2/525.0%28.6%0.00
2026-09-151530409301/3/830.0%30.0%0.00
2026-09-161530406202/1/520.0%20.0%0.00
2026-09-17918263001/0/216.7%11.5%0.00
2026-09-181530368302/1/826.7%30.6%0.00
2026-09-191530387111/2/623.3%23.7%0.00

Graded Picks — 2026-09-19

TeamMatchupPlayerPickTierResultHRs
Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers @ Chicago White SoxRiley Greene#1redMISS0
Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers @ Chicago White SoxMunetaka Murakami#1redMISS0
Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore OriolesWilliam Contreras#1redMISS0
Baltimore OriolesMilwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore OriolesCoby Mayo#1yellowMISS0
Baltimore OriolesMilwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore OriolesPete Alonso#2yellowMISS0
Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay RaysAdley Rutschman#1redMISS0
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay RaysJonathan Aranda#1yellowHIT1
Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay RaysRichie Palacios#2yellowMISS0
Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies @ New York MetsKyle Schwarber#1redMISS0
New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies @ New York MetsFrancisco Lindor#1redMISS0
AthleticsAthletics @ Cleveland GuardiansLawrence Butler#1redMISS0
Cleveland GuardiansAthletics @ Cleveland GuardiansAngel Martínez#1greenHIT2
Cleveland GuardiansAthletics @ Cleveland GuardiansTravis Bazzana#2yellowMISS0
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsPete Crow-Armstron#1greenMISS0
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsDansby Swanson#2yellowHIT1
Chicago CubsChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsMichael Busch#3redHIT1
Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsElly De La Cruz#1greenMISS0
Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs @ Cincinnati RedsEugenio Suárez#2yellowMISS0
Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh PiratesCarter Jensen#1redHIT1
Pittsburgh PiratesKansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh PiratesBrandon Lowe#1redHIT1
Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays @ Texas RangersKazuma Okamoto#1redMISS0
Texas RangersToronto Blue Jays @ Texas RangersCorey Seager#1redMISS0
Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves @ Houston AstrosRonald Acuña Jr.#1redHIT1
Houston AstrosAtlanta Braves @ Houston AstrosYordan Alvarez#1redMISS0
Washington NationalsWashington Nationals @ St. Louis CardinalsKeibert Ruiz#1redMISS0
St. Louis CardinalsWashington Nationals @ St. Louis CardinalsLeo Bernal#1redMISS0
Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners @ Colorado RockiesRandy Arozarena#1redHIT1
Colorado RockiesSeattle Mariners @ Colorado RockiesCole Carrigg#1redMISS0
New York YankeesNew York Yankees @ Arizona DiamondbacksBen Rice#1redMISS0
Arizona DiamondbacksNew York Yankees @ Arizona DiamondbacksNolan Arenado#1redMISS0
Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins @ San Diego PadresGraham Pauley#1redMISS0
San Diego PadresMiami Marlins @ San Diego PadresJackson Merrill#1redMISS0
San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles DodgersChristian Koss#1redMISS0
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles DodgersKyle Tucker#1yellowMISS0
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles DodgersMookie Betts#2redMISS0
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles DodgersMax Muncy#3redMISS0
Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins @ Los Angeles AngelsRyan Kreidler#1redHIT1
Los Angeles AngelsMinnesota Twins @ Los Angeles AngelsMoisés Ballesteros#1redMISS0