Home Run Tracker v2 — 2026-09-20
15 games · 30 team-games · 30 active picks · 7 bet calls · 0 killed by team HR gate
Section A: Game Summary
| Date | Matchup | Team | Team HR Exp | Top Pick | Score | Spray Score | Pick # | Implied HR% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | 3.012 | Kyle Schwarber | 8.59 | 8.72 | #1 | 134.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 2.936 | Francisco Lindor | 5.61 | 5.61 | #1 | 66.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Kansas City Royals | 3.768 | Carter Jensen | 7.87 | 7.94 | #1 | 93.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.192 | Brandon Lowe | 8.59 | 8.67 | #1 | 114.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 7.358 | Pete Crow-Armstron | 14.99 | 15.17 | #1 | 248.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | 4.824 | Elly De La Cruz | 14.95 | 15.09 | #1 | 162.0% |
| 2026-09-20 | Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians | Athletics | 5.371 | Lawrence Butler | 9.06 | 9.0 | #1 | 95.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics | Cleveland Guardians | 6.485 | Travis Bazzana | 14.58 | 14.54 | #1 | 154.7% |
| 2026-09-20 | Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | 3.246 | Adley Rutschman | 6.93 | 6.93 | #1 | 64.8% |
| 2026-09-20 | Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.633 | Junior Caminero | 10.1 | 10.29 | #1 | 161.1% |
| 2026-09-20 | Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros | Atlanta Braves | 4.462 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 8.87 | 8.95 | #1 | 103.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 5.416 | Nelson Velázquez | 7.71 | 7.71 | #1 | 118.0% |
| 2026-09-20 | Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | 3.693 | Riley Greene | 11.15 | 11.23 | #1 | 108.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 4.295 | Munetaka Murakami | 6.94 | 7.08 | #1 | 108.4% |
| 2026-09-20 | Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals | Washington Nationals | 2.7 | Andrés Chaparro | 5.88 | 6.04 | #1 | 72.6% |
| 2026-09-20 | St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals | St. Louis Cardinals | 2.607 | Alec Burleson | 5.86 | 5.95 | #1 | 62.7% |
| 2026-09-20 | Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | 3.403 | Kazuma Okamoto | 8.32 | 8.55 | #1 | 119.3% |
| 2026-09-20 | Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 2.429 | Corey Seager | 5.87 | 5.9 | #1 | 62.1% |
| 2026-09-20 | Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies | Seattle Mariners | 3.887 | Randy Arozarena | 8.01 | 8.21 | #1 | 99.6% |
| 2026-09-20 | Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners | Colorado Rockies | 4.555 | Cole Carrigg | 7.07 | 7.11 | #1 | 61.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels | Minnesota Twins | 4.476 | Josh Bell | 6.8 | 6.83 | #1 | 74.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Angels | 4.246 | Moisés Ballesteros | 6.59 | 6.51 | #1 | 70.4% |
| 2026-09-20 | San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 2.683 | Drew Gilbert | 5.46 | 5.44 | #1 | 42.1% |
| 2026-09-20 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 6.404 | Mookie Betts | 11.03 | 11.27 | #1 | 149.1% |
| 2026-09-20 | Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres | Miami Marlins | 4.466 | Graham Pauley | 9.1 | 9.25 | #1 | 84.6% |
| 2026-09-20 | San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins | San Diego Padres | 3.563 | Jackson Merrill | 7.52 | 7.51 | #1 | 84.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Yankees | 7.051 | Ben Rice | 10.25 | 10.3 | #1 | 182.2% |
| 2026-09-20 | Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.863 | Nolan Arenado | 8.0 | 8.29 | #1 | 103.7% |
| 2026-09-20 | Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles | Milwaukee Brewers | 3.172 | William Contreras | 6.68 | 6.78 | #1 | 56.9% |
| 2026-09-20 | Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers | Baltimore Orioles | 2.485 | Coby Mayo | 6.21 | 6.32 | #1 | 70.9% |
Section B: Top Pick Detail (C-Only Decomposition)
Each pick is decomposed into Hitter (what the batter did), Pitcher (matchup quality), and Park (env). The Spray Park column personalizes the park factor using the batter's pull/center/oppo profile.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — Citi Field
Team HR Expectancy: 3.012 · Starting Pitcher: Jonah Tong (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.19, K/9 8.57, HR/9 0.86)
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies — Citi Field
Team HR Expectancy: 2.936 · Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez (ERA 2.93, WHIP 1.22, K/9 9.99, HR/9 0.79)
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — PNC Park
Team HR Expectancy: 3.768 · Starting Pitcher: Lake Bachar (ERA 3.5, WHIP 1.12, K/9 9.4, HR/9 1.42)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Kansas City Royals — PNC Park
Team HR Expectancy: 4.192 · Starting Pitcher: Michael Wacha (ERA 3.34, WHIP 1.1, K/9 7.11, HR/9 1.29)
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — Great American Ball Park
Team HR Expectancy: 7.358 · Starting Pitcher: Rhett Lowder (ERA 5.79, WHIP 1.52, K/9 7.09, HR/9 1.3)
#2 Pick: Michael Busch (Score 8.611 / Spray 8.62, Implied HR% 89.1%)
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs — Great American Ball Park
Team HR Expectancy: 4.824 · Starting Pitcher: TBD (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.35, K/9 8.5, HR/9 1.2)
#2 Pick: Eugenio Suárez (Score 8.398 / Spray 8.532, Implied HR% 115.9%)
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians — Progressive Field
Team HR Expectancy: 5.371 · Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams (ERA 3.78, WHIP 1.1, K/9 12.16, HR/9 1.4)
#2 Pick: Donovan Walton (Score 8.182 / Spray 8.247, Implied HR% 72.8%)
Cleveland Guardians @ Athletics — Progressive Field
Team HR Expectancy: 6.485 · Starting Pitcher: Jack Perkins (ERA 6.14, WHIP 1.48, K/9 10.39, HR/9 1.64)
#2 Pick: Angel Martínez (Score 14.111 / Spray 14.193, Implied HR% 192.5%)
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — Tropicana Field
Team HR Expectancy: 3.246 · Starting Pitcher: Griffin Jax (ERA 3.8, WHIP 1.2, K/9 9.49, HR/9 1.29)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox — Tropicana Field
Team HR Expectancy: 5.633 · Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval (ERA 4.99, WHIP 1.79, K/9 9.68, HR/9 0.94)
#2 Pick: Richie Palacios (Score 9.577 / Spray 9.598, Implied HR% 86.6%)
#3 Pick: Jonathan Aranda (Score 9.016 / Spray 8.963, Implied HR% 93.2%)
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — Daikin Park
Team HR Expectancy: 4.462 · Starting Pitcher: Hunter Brown (ERA 3.43, WHIP 1.29, K/9 10.21, HR/9 1.02)
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves — Daikin Park
Team HR Expectancy: 5.416 · Starting Pitcher: Martín Pérez (ERA 3.07, WHIP 1.26, K/9 6.54, HR/9 0.85)
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox — Rate Field
Team HR Expectancy: 3.693 · Starting Pitcher: Davis Martin (ERA 3.96, WHIP 1.3, K/9 7.34, HR/9 0.89)
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers — Rate Field
Team HR Expectancy: 4.295 · Starting Pitcher: Troy Melton (ERA 2.52, WHIP 1.1, K/9 7.32, HR/9 1.06)
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — Busch Stadium
Team HR Expectancy: 2.7 · Starting Pitcher: Quinn Mathews (ERA 3.62, WHIP 1.39, K/9 8.68, HR/9 0.72)
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals — Busch Stadium
Team HR Expectancy: 2.607 · Starting Pitcher: Jake Irvin (ERA 5.51, WHIP 1.41, K/9 8.97, HR/9 1.59)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers — Globe Life Field
Team HR Expectancy: 3.403 · Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom (ERA 3.79, WHIP 1.07, K/9 11.31, HR/9 1.17)
Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays — Globe Life Field
Team HR Expectancy: 2.429 · Starting Pitcher: Spencer Miles (ERA 2.65, WHIP 1.09, K/9 8.54, HR/9 0.49)
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies — Coors Field
Team HR Expectancy: 3.887 · Starting Pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano (ERA 5.49, WHIP 1.36, K/9 5.43, HR/9 1.96)
Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners — Coors Field
Team HR Expectancy: 4.555 · Starting Pitcher: Kade Anderson (ERA 5.33, WHIP 1.42, K/9 7.46, HR/9 1.42)
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — Angel Stadium
Team HR Expectancy: 4.476 · Starting Pitcher: Ryan Johnson (ERA 4.88, WHIP 1.34, K/9 6.97, HR/9 1.79)
Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins — Angel Stadium
Team HR Expectancy: 4.246 · Starting Pitcher: Dean Kremer (ERA 5.35, WHIP 1.24, K/9 8.61, HR/9 1.98)
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers — UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Team HR Expectancy: 2.683 · Starting Pitcher: TBD (ERA 4.5, WHIP 1.35, K/9 8.5, HR/9 1.2)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants — UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Team HR Expectancy: 6.404 · Starting Pitcher: Matt Wilkinson (ERA 4.58, WHIP 1.12, K/9 5.49, HR/9 1.83)
#2 Pick: Kyle Tucker (Score 9.254 / Spray 9.158, Implied HR% 90.4%)
#3 Pick: Will Smith (Score 8.021 / Spray 8.131, Implied HR% 92.8%)
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres — Petco Park
Team HR Expectancy: 4.466 · Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler (ERA 4.58, WHIP 1.37, K/9 7.66, HR/9 1.26)
San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins — Petco Park
Team HR Expectancy: 3.563 · Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (ERA 3.84, WHIP 1.23, K/9 6.51, HR/9 1.0)
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Chase Field
Team HR Expectancy: 7.051 · Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes (ERA 5.87, WHIP 1.17, K/9 7.04, HR/9 2.35)
#2 Pick: Cody Bellinger (Score 9.94 / Spray 10.076, Implied HR% 92.2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Yankees — Chase Field
Team HR Expectancy: 3.863 · Starting Pitcher: Will Warren (ERA 3.89, WHIP 1.36, K/9 8.94, HR/9 1.28)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles — Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Team HR Expectancy: 3.172 · Starting Pitcher: Brandon Young (ERA 3.65, WHIP 1.37, K/9 7.29, HR/9 1.3)
Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers — Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Team HR Expectancy: 2.485 · Starting Pitcher: Jacob Misiorowski (ERA 1.89, WHIP 0.81, K/9 13.15, HR/9 0.76)