sbfg calibration report

SBFG Calibration & Brier Score — 2026-09-20

2026-09-20

Resolved predictions: 977
Accuracy: 58.6%
Brier score: 0.2403 (lower is better; random = 0.25)

Calibration Bins

Bin	N	Avg Predicted	Actual Rate
50%-55%	123	52.5%	51.2%
55%-60%	143	57.9%	55.9%
60%-65%	112	62.6%	59.8%
65%-70%	150	67.5%	67.3%
70%-75%	74	71.7%	68.9%
75%-85%	2	76.3%	50.0%

ROI by Edge Threshold

Threshold	Bets	Wins	ROI
0.00	977	572	+13.7%
0.03	730	435	+19.6%
0.05	568	333	+22.4%
0.07	428	242	+23.8%