Smart Bet Field Guide
Smart Bet Field Guide — 2026-09-20
SBFG V2 analysis for 15 MLB games. RLM signals: 12.
Game Analysis
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers — UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
Model: Home 56.9% | Away 43.1% | Reliability 0.60 Market (no-vig): Home 70.1% (-275) | Away 29.9% (+220) Edge: Home -13.2% | Away +13.2% Run line: Home 27.9% | Away 72.1% | Blowout 70% RLM: CONTRARIAN (13.2%) Call: LEAN_AWAY San Francisco Giants
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -1.14% | ERA diff: 4.58 vs 4.50 -> +0.64%\nWHIP diff: 1.12 vs 1.35 -> -2.30%\nK/9 diff: 8.0 vs 5.5 -> +2.01% |
| Bullpen Quality | +1.92% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.70, Away 4.18\nERA diff adjustment: +1.92% |
| Season Record | +0.30% | Home record: 95-60 (regressed: 0.613)\nAway record: 64-91 (regressed: 0.413)\nAdjustment: +0.30% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +1.80% | Home last 5: 4/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +1.80% |
| Park Factor | +0.05% | Park factor: 1.050\nAdjustment: +0.05% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Contrarian signal: model diverges 13.2% from market.
Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — PNC Park
Model: Home 59.7% | Away 40.3% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 48.6% (-102) | Away 51.4% (-115) Edge: Home +11.2% | Away -11.2% Run line: Home 30.7% | Away 69.3% | Blowout 72% RLM: STRONG_CONTRARIAN (11.2%) Call: BET_HOME Pittsburgh Pirates
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | +0.29% | ERA diff: 3.34 vs 3.50 -> -1.28%\nWHIP diff: 1.10 vs 1.12 -> -0.20%\nK/9 diff: 9.4 vs 7.1 -> +1.83% |
| Bullpen Quality | +3.64% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.71, Away 4.62\nERA diff adjustment: +3.64% |
| Season Record | +0.11% | Home record: 78-77 (regressed: 0.503)\nAway record: 67-88 (regressed: 0.432)\nAdjustment: +0.11% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +1.80% | Home last 5: 3/5\nAway last 5: 1/5\nAdjustment: +1.80% |
| Park Factor | -0.10% | Park factor: 0.900\nAdjustment: -0.10% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Strong contrarian signal: model diverges 11.2% from market.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox — Rate Field
Model: Home 41.9% | Away 58.1% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 52.2% (-118) | Away 47.8% (+102) Edge: Home -10.3% | Away +10.3% Run line: Home 69.3% | Away 30.7% | Blowout 75% RLM: STRONG_CONTRARIAN (10.3%) Call: BET_AWAY Detroit Tigers
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -12.00% | ERA diff: 2.52 vs 3.96 -> -11.52%\nWHIP diff: 1.10 vs 1.30 -> -2.00%\nK/9 diff: 7.3 vs 7.3 -> +0.02% |
| Bullpen Quality | -0.28% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.34, Away 3.27\nERA diff adjustment: -0.28% |
| Season Record | +0.06% | Home record: 79-76 (regressed: 0.510)\nAway record: 73-82 (regressed: 0.471)\nAdjustment: +0.06% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +0.00% | Home last 5: 2/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +0.00% |
| Park Factor | +0.12% | Park factor: 1.120\nAdjustment: +0.12% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Strong contrarian signal: model diverges 10.3% from market.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers — Globe Life Field
Model: Home 49.2% | Away 50.8% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 59.4% (-162) | Away 40.6% (+137) Edge: Home -10.2% | Away +10.2% Run line: Home 75.2% | Away 24.8% | Blowout 73% RLM: STRONG_CONTRARIAN (10.2%) Call: BET_AWAY Toronto Blue Jays
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -7.04% | ERA diff: 2.65 vs 3.79 -> -9.12%\nWHIP diff: 1.09 vs 1.07 -> +0.20%\nK/9 diff: 11.3 vs 8.5 -> +2.22% |
| Bullpen Quality | -0.92% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.18, Away 2.95\nERA diff adjustment: -0.92% |
| Season Record | +0.02% | Home record: 78-77 (regressed: 0.503)\nAway record: 76-79 (regressed: 0.490)\nAdjustment: +0.02% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +2.70% | Home last 5: 4/5\nAway last 5: 1/5\nAdjustment: +2.70% |
| Park Factor | -0.02% | Park factor: 0.980\nAdjustment: -0.02% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.50% | Warm (79°F) -> +0.5% offense\nNet adjustment: +0.50% |
Notes:
- Strong contrarian signal: model diverges 10.2% from market.
New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks — Chase Field
Model: Home 40.4% | Away 59.6% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 50.0% (-115) | Away 50.0% (-115) Edge: Home -9.6% | Away +9.6% Run line: Home 69.0% | Away 31.0% | Blowout 73% RLM: STRONG_CONTRARIAN (9.6%) Call: BET_AWAY New York Yankees
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -12.00% | ERA diff: 3.89 vs 5.87 -> -15.84%\nWHIP diff: 1.36 vs 1.17 -> +1.90%\nK/9 diff: 7.0 vs 8.9 -> -1.52% |
| Bullpen Quality | -0.64% | Bullpen ERA: Home 2.96, Away 2.80\nERA diff adjustment: -0.64% |
| Season Record | -0.08% | Home record: 81-74 (regressed: 0.523)\nAway record: 89-65 (regressed: 0.578)\nAdjustment: -0.08% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | -0.90% | Home last 5: 2/5\nAway last 5: 3/5\nAdjustment: -0.90% |
| Park Factor | +0.00% | Park factor: 1.000\nAdjustment: +0.00% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Strong contrarian signal: model diverges 9.6% from market.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — Angel Stadium
Model: Home 56.8% | Away 43.2% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 47.2% (+105) | Away 52.8% (-120) Edge: Home +9.6% | Away -9.6% Run line: Home 27.8% | Away 72.2% | Blowout 70% RLM: STRONG_CONTRARIAN (9.6%) Call: BET_HOME Los Angeles Angels
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | +1.54% | ERA diff: 5.35 vs 4.88 -> +3.76%\nWHIP diff: 1.24 vs 1.34 -> -1.00%\nK/9 diff: 7.0 vs 8.6 -> -1.31% |
| Bullpen Quality | +0.48% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.94, Away 4.06\nERA diff adjustment: +0.48% |
| Season Record | -0.12% | Home record: 60-95 (regressed: 0.387)\nAway record: 72-83 (regressed: 0.465)\nAdjustment: -0.12% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +0.90% | Home last 5: 3/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +0.90% |
| Park Factor | +0.00% | Park factor: 1.000\nAdjustment: +0.00% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Strong contrarian signal: model diverges 9.6% from market.
Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians — Progressive Field
Model: Home 75.2% | Away 24.8% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 67.0% (-230) | Away 33.0% (+192) Edge: Home +8.2% | Away -8.2% Run line: Home 45.2% | Away 54.8% | Blowout 75% RLM: STRONG_CONTRARIAN (8.2%) Call: BET_HOME Cleveland Guardians
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | +12.00% | ERA diff: 6.14 vs 3.78 -> +18.88%\nWHIP diff: 1.48 vs 1.10 -> +3.80%\nK/9 diff: 12.2 vs 10.4 -> +1.42% |
| Bullpen Quality | +5.00% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.17, Away 5.04\nERA diff adjustment: +7.48% |
| Season Record | +0.18% | Home record: 80-75 (regressed: 0.516)\nAway record: 61-94 (regressed: 0.394)\nAdjustment: +0.18% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +3.60% | Home last 5: 4/5\nAway last 5: 0/5\nAdjustment: +3.60% |
| Park Factor | -0.05% | Park factor: 0.950\nAdjustment: -0.05% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.50% | Warm (75°F) -> +0.5% offense\nNet adjustment: +0.50% |
Notes:
- Strong contrarian signal: model diverges 8.2% from market.
- Extreme confidence detected. Baseball has too much variance for 70%+ probabilities.
Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — Tropicana Field
Model: Home 65.3% | Away 34.6% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 57.8% (-150) | Away 42.2% (+128) Edge: Home +7.6% | Away -7.6% Run line: Home 34.5% | Away 65.5% | Blowout 71% RLM: CONTRARIAN (7.6%) Call: BET_HOME Tampa Bay Rays
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | +12.00% | ERA diff: 4.99 vs 3.80 -> +9.52%\nWHIP diff: 1.79 vs 1.20 -> +5.90%\nK/9 diff: 9.5 vs 9.7 -> -0.15% |
| Bullpen Quality | -2.60% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.74, Away 3.09\nERA diff adjustment: -2.60% |
| Season Record | +0.10% | Home record: 94-60 (regressed: 0.610)\nAway record: 84-71 (regressed: 0.542)\nAdjustment: +0.10% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +1.80% | Home last 5: 4/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +1.80% |
| Park Factor | +0.05% | Park factor: 1.050\nAdjustment: +0.05% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Contrarian signal: model diverges 7.6% from market.
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — Busch Stadium
Model: Home 63.9% | Away 36.1% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 57.4% (-148) | Away 42.6% (+126) Edge: Home +6.5% | Away -6.5% Run line: Home 34.3% | Away 65.7% | Blowout 73% RLM: CONTRARIAN (6.5%) Call: BET_HOME St. Louis Cardinals
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | +12.00% | ERA diff: 5.51 vs 3.62 -> +15.12%\nWHIP diff: 1.41 vs 1.39 -> +0.20%\nK/9 diff: 8.7 vs 9.0 -> -0.23% |
| Bullpen Quality | +0.64% | Bullpen ERA: Home 4.00, Away 4.16\nERA diff adjustment: +0.64% |
| Season Record | +0.02% | Home record: 75-80 (regressed: 0.484)\nAway record: 73-82 (regressed: 0.471)\nAdjustment: +0.02% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | -2.70% | Home last 5: 1/5\nAway last 5: 4/5\nAdjustment: -2.70% |
| Park Factor | -0.08% | Park factor: 0.920\nAdjustment: -0.08% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Contrarian signal: model diverges 6.5% from market.
Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — Citi Field
Model: Home 45.4% | Away 54.6% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 39.4% (+144) | Away 60.6% (-170) Edge: Home +6.0% | Away -6.0% Run line: Home 73.0% | Away 27.1% | Blowout 72% RLM: CONTRARIAN (6.0%) Call: LEAN_HOME New York Mets
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -4.87% | ERA diff: 2.93 vs 3.43 -> -4.00%\nWHIP diff: 1.22 vs 1.19 -> +0.30%\nK/9 diff: 8.6 vs 10.0 -> -1.14% |
| Bullpen Quality | -3.56% | Bullpen ERA: Home 4.85, Away 3.96\nERA diff adjustment: -3.56% |
| Season Record | -0.14% | Home record: 71-84 (regressed: 0.458)\nAway record: 85-70 (regressed: 0.548)\nAdjustment: -0.14% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +0.00% | Home last 5: 2/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +0.00% |
| Park Factor | -0.05% | Park factor: 0.950\nAdjustment: -0.05% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Contrarian signal: model diverges 6.0% from market.
Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies — Coors Field
Model: Home 46.3% | Away 53.7% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 40.4% (+140) | Away 59.6% (-160) Edge: Home +5.9% | Away -5.9% Run line: Home 73.6% | Away 26.4% | Blowout 72% RLM: CONTRARIAN (5.9%) Call: LEAN_HOME Colorado Rockies
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -2.57% | ERA diff: 5.33 vs 5.49 -> -1.28%\nWHIP diff: 1.42 vs 1.36 -> +0.60%\nK/9 diff: 5.4 vs 7.5 -> -1.62% |
| Bullpen Quality | -5.00% | Bullpen ERA: Home 5.30, Away 4.04\nERA diff adjustment: -5.04% |
| Season Record | -0.15% | Home record: 57-98 (regressed: 0.368)\nAway record: 72-83 (regressed: 0.465)\nAdjustment: -0.15% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +0.00% | Home last 5: 2/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +0.00% |
| Park Factor | +0.00% | Park factor: 1.000\nAdjustment: +0.00% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Contrarian signal: model diverges 5.9% from market.
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — Daikin Park
Model: Home 49.7% | Away 50.3% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 55.5% (-136) | Away 44.5% (+116) Edge: Home -5.7% | Away +5.7% Run line: Home 75.8% | Away 24.2% | Blowout 72% RLM: CONTRARIAN (5.7%) Call: LEAN_AWAY Atlanta Braves
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -0.33% | ERA diff: 3.07 vs 3.43 -> -2.88%\nWHIP diff: 1.26 vs 1.29 -> -0.30%\nK/9 diff: 10.2 vs 6.5 -> +2.94% |
| Bullpen Quality | -2.92% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.65, Away 2.92\nERA diff adjustment: -2.92% |
| Season Record | -0.14% | Home record: 77-78 (regressed: 0.497)\nAway record: 91-64 (regressed: 0.587)\nAdjustment: -0.14% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | -0.90% | Home last 5: 2/5\nAway last 5: 3/5\nAdjustment: -0.90% |
| Park Factor | +0.02% | Park factor: 1.020\nAdjustment: +0.02% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Notes:
- Contrarian signal: model diverges 5.7% from market.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles — Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Model: Home 39.5% | Away 60.5% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 35.4% (+172) | Away 64.6% (-205) Edge: Home +4.1% | Away -4.1% Run line: Home 68.3% | Away 31.7% | Blowout 73% RLM: NONE (4.1%) Call: LEAN_HOME Baltimore Orioles
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -12.00% | ERA diff: 1.89 vs 3.65 -> -14.08%\nWHIP diff: 0.81 vs 1.37 -> -5.60%\nK/9 diff: 7.3 vs 13.2 -> -4.69% |
| Bullpen Quality | -1.48% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.60, Away 3.23\nERA diff adjustment: -1.48% |
| Season Record | -0.21% | Home record: 75-80 (regressed: 0.484)\nAway record: 97-58 (regressed: 0.626)\nAdjustment: -0.21% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | -0.90% | Home last 5: 3/5\nAway last 5: 4/5\nAdjustment: -0.90% |
| Park Factor | +0.05% | Park factor: 1.050\nAdjustment: +0.05% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres — Petco Park
Model: Home 53.0% | Away 46.9% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 55.6% (-140) | Away 44.4% (+115) Edge: Home -2.6% | Away +2.6% Run line: Home 24.9% | Away 75.1% | Blowout 69% RLM: NONE (2.6%) Call: PASS
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -6.53% | ERA diff: 3.84 vs 4.58 -> -5.92%\nWHIP diff: 1.23 vs 1.37 -> -1.40%\nK/9 diff: 7.7 vs 6.5 -> +0.92% |
| Bullpen Quality | +3.76% | Bullpen ERA: Home 3.30, Away 4.24\nERA diff adjustment: +3.76% |
| Season Record | +0.10% | Home record: 86-69 (regressed: 0.555)\nAway record: 76-79 (regressed: 0.490)\nAdjustment: +0.10% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | +1.80% | Home last 5: 4/5\nAway last 5: 2/5\nAdjustment: +1.80% |
| Park Factor | -0.08% | Park factor: 0.920\nAdjustment: -0.08% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds — Great American Ball Park
Model: Home 40.9% | Away 59.1% | Reliability 1.00 Market (no-vig): Home 41.3% (+133) | Away 58.7% (-157) Edge: Home -0.4% | Away +0.4% Run line: Home 68.5% | Away 31.5% | Blowout 75% RLM: NONE (0.4%) Call: PASS
| Factor | Adjustment | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Home Field Advantage | +4.00% | Home teams win ~54% of MLB games. +4.0% to home team. |
| Starting Pitcher Matchup | -11.00% | ERA diff: 4.50 vs 5.79 -> -10.32%\nWHIP diff: 1.35 vs 1.52 -> -1.70%\nK/9 diff: 7.1 vs 8.0 -> -0.73% |
| Bullpen Quality | -1.28% | Bullpen ERA: Home 4.16, Away 3.84\nERA diff adjustment: -1.28% |
| Season Record | -0.14% | Home record: 72-83 (regressed: 0.465)\nAway record: 86-69 (regressed: 0.555)\nAdjustment: -0.14% |
| Recent Momentum (Last 5) | -0.90% | Home last 5: 2/5\nAway last 5: 3/5\nAdjustment: -0.90% |
| Park Factor | +0.18% | Park factor: 1.180\nAdjustment: +0.18% |
| Weather Conditions | +0.00% | \nNet adjustment: +0.00% |
Reverse Line Movement Signals
- San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers — CONTRARIAN | model Los Angeles Dodgers 56.9% vs market 70.1%
- Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates — STRONG_CONTRARIAN | model Pittsburgh Pirates 59.7% vs market 48.6%
- Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox — STRONG_CONTRARIAN | model Chicago White Sox 41.9% vs market 52.2%
- Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers — STRONG_CONTRARIAN | model Texas Rangers 49.2% vs market 59.4%
- New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks — STRONG_CONTRARIAN | model Arizona Diamondbacks 40.4% vs market 50.0%
- Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels — STRONG_CONTRARIAN | model Los Angeles Angels 56.8% vs market 47.2%
- Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians — STRONG_CONTRARIAN | model Cleveland Guardians 75.2% vs market 67.0%
- Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays — CONTRARIAN | model Tampa Bay Rays 65.3% vs market 57.8%
- Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals — CONTRARIAN | model St. Louis Cardinals 63.9% vs market 57.4%
- Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — CONTRARIAN | model New York Mets 45.4% vs market 39.4%
- Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies — CONTRARIAN | model Colorado Rockies 46.3% vs market 40.4%
- Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros — CONTRARIAN | model Houston Astros 49.7% vs market 55.5%