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Daily Intelligence Brief — 2026-09-20

Coffee News Edition

Home Run Tracker v2 top picks and Smart Bet Field Guide calls.

Full edition →
Home Run Tracker v2Smart Bet Field Guide

Generated at 2026-09-20 06:02:47 for active domains: MLB, Options, Crypto, Sports

Overnight Market Deltas

  • BNB — $752.43 (24h: -1.98%)
  • BRENT — $99.29 (24h: +0.00%)
  • BTC — $80475.50 (24h: -1.08%)
  • ETH — $2577.45 (24h: -2.42%)
  • HYPE — $91.36 (24h: -1.26%)
  • SUI — $0.82 (24h: -4.78%)
  • XLM — $0.19 (24h: -2.47%)
  • XRP — $1.38 (24h: -3.93%)
  • xyz:AAPL — $333.50 (24h: -0.41%)
  • xyz:ALUMINIUM — $3080.00 (24h: +0.00%)
  • xyz:BRENTOIL — $100.73 (24h: +1.21%)
  • xyz:CL — $97.26 (24h: +1.20%)
  • xyz:COIN — $192.77 (24h: -1.15%)
  • xyz:COPPER — $6.68 (24h: -0.01%)
  • xyz:CORN — $4.61 (24h: +0.00%)
  • xyz:GOLD — $4370.50 (24h: -0.11%)
  • xyz:HOOD — $117.43 (24h: -1.90%)
  • xyz:MSTR — $151.99 (24h: -2.70%)
  • xyz:NATGAS — $3.05 (24h: +0.44%)
  • xyz:NVDA — $220.43 (24h: -0.76%)
  • xyz:PALLADIUM — $1306.00 (24h: +0.03%)
  • xyz:PLATINUM — $1799.50 (24h: -0.05%)
  • xyz:SILVER — $66.29 (24h: -0.30%)
  • xyz:SP500 — $7636.70 (24h: -0.11%)
  • xyz:TSLA — $362.86 (24h: -0.49%)
  • xyz:TTF — $57.00 (24h: +0.00%)
  • xyz:URANIUM — $85.00 (24h: +0.00%)
  • xyz:WHEAT — $6.30 (24h: +0.00%)
  • xyz:XLE — $64.10 (24h: -0.46%)
  • xyz:XYZ100 — $29542.00 (24h: -0.20%)

Overnight News

MLB

  • 15 MLB games on the schedule today.
  • Notable starters today include Cristopher Sánchez, Jonah Tong, Michael Wacha.

Options

  • VIX at 14.81 (-4.08%).
  • SPY at 761.69 (+0.13%).
  • MSTR at 153.92 (+16.39%).
  • AAPL at 336.13.
  • AAPL implied earnings move estimate: 1.2% (from ATM straddle).
  • 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00%.

Crypto

  • BTC perpetual at $80,465.50 (-1.09% 24h) (Hyperliquid).
  • BTC funding rate: 0.0013% (Hyperliquid).
  • ETH perpetual at $2,576.95 (-2.43% 24h) (Hyperliquid).
  • ETH funding rate: 0.0013% (Hyperliquid).
  • HYPE perpetual at $91.39 (-1.29% 24h) (Hyperliquid).
  • HYPE funding rate: 0.0013% (Hyperliquid).
  • XRP perpetual at $1.38 (-3.96% 24h) (Hyperliquid).
  • XRP funding rate: 0.0013% (Hyperliquid).
  • BNB perpetual at $752.48 (-1.98% 24h) (Hyperliquid).
  • BNB funding rate: 0.0013% (Hyperliquid).
  • SUI perpetual at $0.8213 (-4.88% 24h) (Hyperliquid).
  • SUI funding rate: 0.0013% (Hyperliquid).

Sports

  • SportSelect: 248 events scraped.
  • SportSelect: 23 soccer/FIFA events available.

Today's Forecast

MLB

  • 17:10 UTC — Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets (Scheduled)
  • 17:35 UTC — Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (Scheduled)
  • 17:40 UTC — Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds (Scheduled)
  • 17:40 UTC — Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians (Scheduled)
  • 17:40 UTC — Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (Scheduled)
  • 18:10 UTC — Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros (Scheduled)
  • 18:10 UTC — Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (Scheduled)
  • 18:15 UTC — Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals (Scheduled)
  • 18:35 UTC — Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers (Scheduled)
  • 19:10 UTC — Seattle Mariners @ Colorado Rockies (Scheduled)
  • 20:07 UTC — Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels (Scheduled)
  • 20:10 UTC — San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers (Scheduled)
  • 20:10 UTC — Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (Scheduled)
  • 20:10 UTC — New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Scheduled)
  • 23:20 UTC — Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles (Scheduled)

Options

  • 09:30 ET — US equity options market open

Crypto

  • 00:00 / 08:00 / 16:00 UTC — Hyperliquid perpetual funding rate settlements

Sports

  • 10:00 am MT — MALTA at ANDORRA (September 24, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — DENMARK at NORWAY (September 24, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — GERMANY at NETHERLANDS (September 24, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — GREECE at SERBIA (September 24, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — ISRAEL at AUSTRIA (September 24, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — WALES at PORTUGAL (September 24, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — LITHUANIA at LIECHTENSTEIN (September 24, 2026)
  • 10:00 am MT — LATVIA at ARMENIA (September 25, 2026)
  • 10:00 am MT — NORTHERN IRELAND at GEORGIA (September 25, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — UKRAINE at HUNGARY (September 25, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA at POLAND (September 25, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — CYPRUS at MONTENEGRO (September 25, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — BELGIUM at ITALY (September 25, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — ROMANIA at SWEDEN (September 25, 2026)
  • 7:00 am MT — SCOTLAND at SLOVENIA (September 26, 2026)
  • 10:00 am MT — ESTONIA at ICELAND (September 26, 2026)
  • 10:00 am MT — LUXEMBOURG at BULGARIA (September 26, 2026)
  • 10:00 am MT — FINLAND at SAN MARINO (September 26, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — BELARUS at ALBANIA (September 26, 2026)
  • 12:45 pm MT — MOLDOVA at SLOVAKIA (September 26, 2026)

Economic Calendar

  • 18:01 UTC — GBP Rightmove HPI m/m (Previous: -2.0%) (Low impact)
  • 20:00 UTC — CNY 1-y Loan Prime Rate (Forecast: 3.00% Previous: 3.00%) (Low impact)
  • 20:00 UTC — CNY 5-y Loan Prime Rate (Forecast: 3.50% Previous: 3.50%) (Low impact)
  • 22:00 UTC — NZD Credit Card Spending y/y (Previous: 5.3%) (Low impact)
  • TBD — JPY Bank Holiday (Low impact)

Predictions

HIP4_20260920_002 — HIP4

  • Event: class:priceBinary|underlying:BTC|expiry:20260921-0600|targetPrice:80501|period:1d
  • Binary: BTC below 80501 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC?
  • P_Your: 0.586 | P_Market: 0.536 | Edge: 0.05
  • Odds: 1.8657 | EV: 0.0933
  • Kelly: 0.1078 (applied: 0.0539)
  • Stake: $200 | Confidence: Low

HIP4_20260920_004 — HIP4

  • Event: class:priceBinary|underlying:ETH|expiry:20260921-0600|targetPrice:2577.5|period:1d
  • Binary: ETH below 2577.5 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC?
  • P_Your: 0.5719 | P_Market: 0.5219 | Edge: 0.05
  • Odds: 1.916 | EV: 0.0958
  • Kelly: 0.1046 (applied: 0.0523)
  • Stake: $200 | Confidence: Medium

HIP4_20260920_006 — HIP4

  • Event: class:priceBinary|underlying:SOL|expiry:20260921-0600|targetPrice:108.78|period:1d
  • Binary: SOL below 108.78 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC?
  • P_Your: 0.6107 | P_Market: 0.5607 | Edge: 0.05
  • Odds: 1.7834 | EV: 0.0891
  • Kelly: 0.1137 (applied: 0.0568)
  • Stake: $200 | Confidence: Medium

HIP4_20260920_007 — HIP4

  • Event: class:priceBinary|underlying:HYPE|expiry:20260921-0600|targetPrice:91.111|period:1d
  • Binary: HYPE above 91.111 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC?
  • P_Your: 0.5767 | P_Market: 0.5267 | Edge: 0.05
  • Odds: 1.8986 | EV: 0.0949
  • Kelly: 0.1056 (applied: 0.0528)
  • Stake: $200 | Confidence: Medium

Calls

  • HIP4 — Take BTC below 80501 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC? | Edge 0.05 | Stake $200 | Confidence Low
  • HIP4 — Take ETH below 2577.5 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC? | Edge 0.05 | Stake $200 | Confidence Medium
  • HIP4 — Take SOL below 108.78 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC? | Edge 0.05 | Stake $200 | Confidence Medium
  • HIP4 — Take HYPE above 91.111 at 2026-09-21 06:00 UTC? | Edge 0.05 | Stake $200 | Confidence Medium

HIP-4 Crypto Binary Performance

  • Resolved: 12 (9 Wins, 3 Losses, 0 Pushes)
  • Hit Rate: 75.0%
  • Paper P&L: $544.88 (ROI +22.70%)

No open HIP-4 crypto binaries.

Recent resolved:

  • HIP4_20260919_007 — HYPE above 92.058 at 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Loss | P&L $-200.00
  • HIP4_20260919_006 — SOL below 111.96 at 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $173.08
  • HIP4_20260919_003 — ETH above 2630.4 at 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Loss | P&L $-200.00
  • HIP4_20260919_001 — BTC above 81081 at 2026-09-20 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Loss | P&L $-200.00
  • HIP4_20260918_007 — HYPE above 87.734 at 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $68.46
  • HIP4_20260918_005 — SOL above 105.36 at 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $165.44
  • HIP4_20260918_003 — ETH above 2479.9 at 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $81.68
  • HIP4_20260918_001 — BTC above 77457 at 2026-09-19 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $79.04
  • HIP4_20260917_007 — HYPE above 78.711 at 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $106.38
  • HIP4_20260917_005 — SOL above 99.506 at 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $114.96
  • HIP4_20260917_003 — ETH above 2436.5 at 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $189.64
  • HIP4_20260917_001 — BTC above 76298 at 2026-09-18 06:00 UTC? | Outcome: Win | P&L $166.20

Model Performance

HR Tracker v2 — 7-Day Backtest

  • Top-1 hit rate: 26.6% | Overall pick rate: 26.8% (243 picks)
  • Tier hit rates: Green 38% (21) / Yellow 32% (40) / Red 24% (182)
  • Gate-kill rate: 0.0% | High-env (≥5.0) rate: 0.0%

SBFG Calibration (as of 2026-09-20)

  • Resolved predictions: 977 | Accuracy: 58.5% | Brier score: 0.2403
  • ROI by edge threshold: ≥3%: +19.6% (730 bets) | ≥5%: +22.4% (568 bets) | ≥7%: +23.8% (428 bets)

7-Day Record

  • 2026-09-13: 4W-0L (100%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-14: 2W-2L (50%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-15: 4W-0L (100%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-16: 4W-0L (100%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-17: 4W-0L (100%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-18: 4W-0L (100%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-19: 4W-0L (100%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 2026-09-20: 1W-3L (25%) | Avg CLV +0.00
  • 7-day total: 27W-5L (84% hit rate)

Review

Yesterday's Calls

MLB

  • No MLB calls logged for 2026-09-19 — Outcome: N/A | Lesson: No predictions to review.

Options

  • No Options calls logged for 2026-09-19 — Outcome: N/A | Lesson: No predictions to review.

Crypto

  • No Crypto calls logged for 2026-09-19 — Outcome: N/A | Lesson: No predictions to review.

Sports

  • No Sports calls logged for 2026-09-19 — Outcome: N/A | Lesson: No predictions to review.

Key Lessons

  • No resolved outcomes yet for yesterday's calls — calibration loop will trigger after more predictions mature.

Information & Notes

  • Current phase: 1. Infrastructure
  • Active loops: DAILY_LOOP
  • Blockers: None recorded
  • Open questions: See STATE.md

End of report. Next report: 2026-09-21 at 06:00.